Since the Bitcoin Price crossed $50,000 back in the 2021 bull market, there have been speculations on when the price will hit $100,000, and on the other extreme end, $1,000,000. Over time, various analysts and pundits have put forward their forecasts, but the most recent of these is from budding economist Alessandro Ottaviani who believes BTC could hit the $1 million mark in the next three years.
Ottaviani starts out his X (formerly Twitter) post by pointing out that the Bitcoin market cap had climbed rapidly following fake news of a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Now, recall that on Monday, media outlet Cointelegraph made a post on X saying that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved the BlackRock iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF filing.
Following this, the price of Bitcoin surged above $30,000 and in a matter of minutes, over $50 billion was added to the crypto’s market cap, as Ottaviani points out. Going by BTC’s reaction to this news which eventually turned out to be fake, the analyst was able to draw a parallel for what might happen when Spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved for real.
Main take away of today: Bitcoin makrket Cap went up by more than $50 billion in minutes, and very likely the money flowing into Bitcoin were less than $500 million (ratio 100:1)
A former Blackrock Director said that we can expect $150-200 billion flowing into Bitcoin in 3…
— Alessandro Ottaviani (@AlexOttaBTC) October 16, 2023
Ottaviani points out that this $50 billion increase in market cap came from an around $500 million injection into the market, meaning the market cap rose at a ratio of 100:1. Thus, going by what BlackRock Director and CEO Larry Fink said about a Spot ETF triggering a $150 billion to $200 billion inflow into the asset, Ottaviani explains that this would put BTC’s market cap at $21 trillion. At a $21 trillion market cap, the price of each BTC would be going for $1 million.
Now, about when this might happen, Ottaviani reverts to Fink’s statement. When Fink made his forecast that $150-$200 billion could flow into Bitcoin, he said that this could happen over a three-year period. So if a Spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in 2024 as Bloomberg analysts believe, then the price of Bitcoin could reach this $1 million mark in 2027-2028 if all goes as planned.
“Surely on the way up there will be many people selling, but this is already directionally clear how much could be the effect of the BTC ETFs being approved,” Ottaviani said in the X post.
BTC still miles away from $1,000,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Ottaviani is only the most recent in a long line of market participants and crypto enthusiasts who have predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $1 million. Some notable personalities who believe it will reach this level include ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan, and finance author Robert Kiyosaki.
Cathie Wood who has been a very vocal proponent of Bitcoin said last year that she expects the price of BTC to hit $1 million by 2030. Due to this belief, Wood’s investment firm ARK Invest has been heavily investing across the crypto space, buying hundreds of thousands of shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, as well as Coinbase stock.
Next on the list is Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan who made a bet in June 2023 that the BTC price would reach $1 million. Srinivasan pointed to “hyperbitcoinization” as the reason behind this. However, Srinivasan’s forecast was on a much shorter timeframe (90 days) and didn’t play out as predicted.
Last but not least is finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Kiyosaki has been sounding the alarm of a potential collapse of the US dollar and has presented the likes of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin as good alternatives to hedge against this potential collapse. In August, Kiyosaki said in an interview that if the economy were to collapse, Bitcoin could reach $1 million, while Gold and Silver could rise to $75,000 and $60,000, respectively.
Featured image from Blockchain Companies, chart from Tradingview.com